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© - Home ufficiale - Il Blog di Giacomo Palumbo

sabato 30 ottobre 2010

The Republican Congress? it is too early to claim victory.

Simply with the approach of midterm elections America asks for those, this November 2, will sound the death knell and discuss the weather. The results give reason to those who hardly think that the Democrats will get the ship into port or to whom the whole, in spite of the crisis and polls, you expect (and hope) a nice surprise for Obama and his party?
According to the latest survey New York Times / CBS News, a not insignificant part of the coalition that brought Barack Obama to the White House in 2008 and in 2006 gave the Democrats control of Congress would have decided to turn and gabbana to trust Republicans. Which, again according to the survey, would have recovered the advantage gained by their opponents in recent electoral cycles among women, Catholics, independents and less wealthy Americans.
Even on the economy, one of the most debated issues during the election campaign, the Republicans have made up the Democratic advantage on issues such as employment and reducing the federal budget deficit.
Among those who see the horizon a sound democratic debacle is Karl Rove, the architect of the campaigns of President Bush in 2000 and 2004. In an editorial in the Wall Street Journal, Rove has no qualms about talking about "democratic apocalypse" and that on November 2 the voters' verdict on the first two years of the Obama administration. " Overall - note Rove - the midterm elections are very unpleasant experience for the White House, especially when, as now, the economy misfires. Specifically, for Obama to make the air a little 'darkest, are the clouds that are also gathering in the skies of those key races that were to be, in theory, a safe haven for the incumbent party.
As in Nevada, for example. Where Harry Reid, leader of the Democratic majority in the Senate, could (not much) to perish under the heels of the bizarre Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle. In addition to a state where Obama, in 2008, won by 12 points, and with an opponent like Angle who, with his numerous gaffes and shoot in effect, it seems we're putting the right to lose all preferences. For now, the posture rather politically incorrect (though it must be said, not sorry at all) has allowed the ineffable Mrs. Angle to bear the distinction of "candidate Cannonball" given by (progressive) Daily Beast. As regards the impact on turnout, we have to - like all the other hand - wait Tuesday.
Or Joe Manchin, West Virginia. The Democratic governor running for the Senate is given in recovery from the polls but not enough to be able to feel safe than opponent John Raes and meanwhile has launched what seems a sort of "maneuver away" by the president. The impression was borne out by the same Manchin in an interview with Fox News in which he said not only that the bill ObamaCare he would never have given his support if he knew everything that was there.
Not everyone feels air of defeat in the Democratic house. Errol Louis on the New York Daily News says that, despite the apparent impasse, the Democrats could end up "surprise everyone." He cites some analysts according to which "bad day" on Tuesday that all the Democrats could expect to be much less awful than expected and feared. Indeed, according to Louis, most of the bad weather was great architect in the world that mainstream media has ignored or downplayed an important fact: the organizational basis of the Democratic Party is moving "in ways that pollsters and pundits probably do not take."
In this sense, the variable of which too little has been said is, according to Louis, who will play the role of voters of color. In this respect cites David Bostis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, according to which time the "black vote" could really make a difference "in many cases.
Another paper that according to Louis could be useful for the Democrats is the "Voto Latino" to a vote at all satisfied with the tough anti-immigration rhetoric in the campaign is peppered with many Republican candidates and that - as stated by Mary Teresa Kumar of the non-profit Voto Latino - might actually be a "October Surprise".
About the flashback to the Democratic Latinos, Charles Krauthammer in The Washington Post cites a recent radio show Obama in which the President addressed the Hispanic accuse him of "stay out of the elections instead of saying 'punish our enemies and reward friends who are with us on issues that are important to us'. " That is, in fact - says Krauthammer - urge Latinos to vote "to exact political revenge on their enemies, presumably, for example, nearly 60 percent of Americans who support the new immigration law in Arizona."
And that "a president who does not even use the word 'enemy' to define a regime like Iran, which contributes to the deaths of American soldiers in Afghanistan," this "from a man so much has been made in view by stating emphatically that no were no red states or blue states, there was no black or white or Latin America, but the United States of America. " Thus ends - Notes Krauthammer - "the great, post-partisan, post-racial president of the new policy, not in beauty or in the complaints, but with a desperate appeal to the pre-election ethnic retaliation."

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