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lunedì 29 agosto 2011

A wall that has not yet dropped


After the end of World War II, at the dawn of the famous conflict between the two future super powers out victorious from the conflict in 1947, during an interview of then presidential adviser Bernard Baruch with the American journalist Walter Lippmann, we witnessed for the first After use as a definition of the term Cold War political and military tension between two opposing ideological camps.
The particular nature of this war is closely linked to substantial equality in the level of power and technology of the actors in the field, and is fundamentally tied to a mutual fear of mutual destruction. Textbook, a cold war is "a conflict based on ideological differences, conducted in ways that do not require a prolonged military action and usually occurs without the breaking of diplomatic relations."
By analyzing in a more analytical definition are at least two basic elements that can develop a conflict of such specificity that is: a clear opposition between two ideological blocks, and a prolonged military action or conduct by third parties. Starting from these assumptions and putting them in the context of the Middle East region can now advance the hypothesis that there is an ideological confrontation, political and military component within Islam between the Sunni majority and the conservative oligarchy, represented by Saudi Arabia more and Egypt, and the component represented by minority and revolutionary Shi'ite Iran, Qatar, Oman and groups Hezbollah and Hamas. It 'can also be said that this opposition has clearly taken a cold war.

The beginning of the history of this inter-Islamic war dates back to 680 AD in Karbala, in the current Iraq, where it consumed the great schism in the Muslim world between the family from which it derived ommayde the Sunni mainstream, and belonging to the family of the prophet Muhammad, whose martyrdom gave rise to the cult of the Shiite faith . After centuries of religious and cultural domination by the Sunnis, in 1979 in Tehran, Ayatollah Khomeini deposed the Shah of Persia and became the supreme guardian of the key Shiite Islamic revolution in winning a great nation in the Middle East region.
From that date until now, Iran has suffered a total embargo by the United States offsetting, however, with a dense network of diplomatic relations, especially military economichee with Russia, China and Venezuela. Since 1979 he has inspired and funded non-stop party-Shiite militia Hezbollah in Lebanon, using it as a bridgehead in the area to try to export the Islamic revolution outside and to increase its influence in the Middle East region at the expense of the Gulf monarchies and Egypt. all'1988 From 1980 until he fought a war for survival against the secularism of Saddam Hussein near lraq advocated and supported economically by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. managing not to be defeated.
After Khomeini's death in 1989 followed by fluctuating periods of detente with the West, thanks to diplomatic mediation of presidents "reformist" Khatami as long as in 2005, was elected as President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ahmadinejad Mahomud, c 'was a new closure of the international community towards the country because of the sudden radicalization of foreign policy by the new political estabilishment. The real escalation of bellicose statements and threats against Israel and the clear intention, declared at global level, to acquire nuclear technology have made the transition from one vision of the alleged export of reformist to a radical revolution. The major consequence has been an arms race between the two parties.

Among the most alarmed by this state of affairs and anxious to contain the growing Iranian influence in the region is the bloc of Sunni Arabs who feel that expansion of Tehran as a threat to its vital interests and their own survival. This alliance, which establishes a crucial counterweight to the balance in the region such as Saudi Arabia and more representatives' Egypt and Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon and part of almost all other Arab countries. Most of these countries, unlike Iran, has a long national history, and stress-free revolution that has shaped and identified over the years with American interests in the region in exchange for privileges and protection.
If the geo-political power of Iran is growing by expanding its military influence in Iraq and Qatar, and organized and versatile use of external means of deterrence and attack as well framed militia Hezbollah and the mine wandering of Hamas, the prolonged international isolation, the possible pre-emptive strike by Israel and the immense wealth that the Saudi monarchy used to counter the Iranian revolution, could reduce or at least slow down their expectations.
The Iranian support to Shia protesters took to the streets in Bahrain, as well as financial and logistical support of Saudi Arabia addressed to the Baluchi Sunni population of Iran are two sides of same coin in a game played for the conquest of the Near East.
However, the recent revolutions have shown clearly how the oligarchy or authoritarianism based on a confession can no longer cope with the social changes under way. The use by Iran and Saudi Arabia to be a part of these cleavages to influence other nations belonging to the block opposite, could create irreparable rifts in the wake of sectarian what happened in Iraq after the American invasion and But where would be the strongest field the Islamic republic because of its revolutionary cause and popular.
On the other hand, countries despite the support of the Sunni bloc and the West billions of petrodollars, from below are subject to ever increasing demands of social and economic oligarchies, and if those in power do not understand or accept the changes taking place making real progress towards substantial reforms, could fall apart much more easily than they hoped.
As the end of the Cold War was splendidly represented by the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the popular will to destroy everything we remembered it, including ideologies, the end of this inter-Islamic conflict may have only end up with a revolutionary apparatus of implosion 'Iran and / or Hezbollah or the end of political apathy of the people who still hold the oligarchs of the Sunni.
If the strength of Iran and Hezbollah is based on popular support and assistance to the population, because of socialism adelementi placed in the context of the tradition islamicache fail to produce consensus and unconditional support among the masses in the light of a national-Islamic socialism, the real bases of power of the Sunni bloc and the West are supported by immense wealth from oil revenues.
In the background, but sheltered participate as actors, observe events, the neo-Ottoman Turkey's Erdogan seeks constantly to expand its place in the sun in the troubled Middle East region, and the small state of Israel, who suffers from chronic syndrome encirclement simply tries to defend themselves.
Future scenarios are varied and many of them even indecipherable, however, if the situation were to remain in this status-quo and without the intervention of a superpower in decline now, the scenario of a nuclear Iran could blackmail Ryad el 'whole area, supported by auxiliary Hezbollah and Hamas increasingly confident of its military capacity to use against Israel, it could become reality and re-ignite the region and perhaps permanently.

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