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© - Home ufficiale - Il Blog di Giacomo Palumbo

venerdì 13 agosto 2010

Efficient infrastructure against the crisis and globalization.

Giustifica'They say there is a crisis!' This year, in the stoppage of highways, railway stations and airports for the August holiday exodus, we will hear again this hackneyed cliché and never really made this year will be a phrase misplaced. In 2009 the U.S. recorded a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita of $ 46,000, compared with 30 000 in Italy, with a gap, then 51%. Some may say that is not a great discovery: we know that Americans are richer than we are! Yet there was a time, not too far away, where it was not unrealistic hypothesis of a strong pound, with 1 to 1 exchange against the dollar. It 'just go back to the early '80s to see how Italians boasted a GDP of over $ 20,000 a year, with a gap with the U.S., only 27%. How did we get here? 70s Italy grew by 3.1%, U.S. 2.1% Europe 2.6%. For all the 80 economies of the three growth was homogeneous (2.2%) and only the 90 that Italy began to falter: the U.S. grew by 2.2%, Europe 1 9, Italy 1%, 5%. Unfortunately this trend has increased over the past 10 years, when Italy increased by 0.4%, the U.S. 's 1.2% and Europe' s 1.3%. They say that the growth of the '70s and '80s was drugged by the increase in debt that we have financed the growth of the 90s with the lower savings. All true, but the fact is that our economy is in trouble and, in short, can be glimpsed prospects for reversal. The reasons are varied. The first, in my view, must be identified and consolidated in the widespread view only a short period, no analysis on the effects of the measures adopted. I'm not saying we should return to the planned economy system of the Soviet Union of yesteryear, but you can not even steer the economy with a view to horas. In the 90s it was believed that a major constraint to development was made by the high labor costs and low productivity. Yet until '95 the productivity differential with the U.S. decreased almost to brim (95%) and all measures to make flexible working relationships are not much use, since, with a constantly decreasing trend, today our productivity is 80% of the U.S.. Just as it served little contraction of the wage, wanted to fight the relocation of manufacturing companies, as if we could compete with Eastern Europe and Asia with the weapon in labor costs! Marchionne in Serbia will produce some models. But, as the work affects the costs of production only for 7-8%, we are confident that the choice comes only from this factor? It is suspected that the real reason is the overall inefficiency of our system. Consider a typical example: I am thirty years that Fiat expects the execution of that office to 'shoulder' to bring the cars produced at the port of Catania. Certainly the political, low-profile, failures come in handy. In the present case, in addition to direct employment is added jobs for the transport from factory in Catania, with the possibility to increase patronage and favors. Sooner or later, however, the chickens come home to roost, and thus the end result is total loss of employment, however, after vain ruined one of the most beautiful in the world. A basic principle to which companies are subject is 'select to be selected.' If a company takes care of the employment area is better to close its doors immediately. Will still be forced to do so below. Another consideration is the generational contract. For each maneuver lengthened the economic retirement age, cut a bit 'welfare and services. We have 25-30% of youth unemployment is now stable. It 'true that the average life expectancy increase (not, however, the pace of pension reforms by cancan) but if you increase the audience of workers there is no deterioration in the retirement age is plenty. There has been talk of straparlato and social pact between generations. A generation of selfish old who has everything and young people will have nothing. But if we continue to raise the retirement age does not create the new generation and prevent young people build a future, a life project. The generational contract ran today and runs in families: grandparents and parents keep their children and grandchildren. But a generation that does not fit and may never enter the world of work and have children who will remain when she is old? Will not have a pension and will have some time together last resting their fathers and grandfathers. Let us ask ourselves why, against most number of weeks worked among the EU countries have the lowest productivity rates. It will not be general inefficiency of the system? Not even the fact that we depend too much decision-making levels (local communities, municipalities, town councils of large cities, provinces, regions)? Proposed solution: federalism. So we have a decision-making more! Would not it be better to eliminate the provinces redistributing the powers? Maybe we will not be battered infrastructure? One of the few thriving sectors of our economy is that of 'shipping'. Pity that the Italian ships to bring goods from Asia to Europe must do the tour of Africa and landed at Antwerp. SAVE 10 days sailing through the Suez Canal and docking at Gioia Tauro, but to reach markets should then take the trail blocked by A1.

In the last decade the European stability pact has introduced a single currency with ECB without the strong powers of the Fed (or the Bank of Italy of blessed memory) and without a unity government economic policy. The result is a vision purely accountancy economy, which places all the processing parameters deficit / GDP and debt / GDP. Here, therefore, that while Obama, to address the crisis of 2008, in a single year increases of 12 points over the U.S. debt, even at the risk of losing support, Europe enter into collective paranoia with the psychodrama of the crisis in Greece. The extent of this paranoia is all in double figures, 45 billion euros of immediate action against a foreign debt of Greece to 228 billion euros, of which 45 (ironically!) Against Germany. The consequence is that the U.S. GDP rose from -2.4 in 2009 to an estimate of +3.2 for 2010 while the GDP of Europe limps. Let us divide the basic parameters of the economy in two parts: one covering the current and the intended development. Development means creating infrastructure. Should therefore limit the Stability Pact primary surplus. We all agree that financing the current account with the debt amounts to collective suicide. Then we identify the essential infrastructure for development and resources to carry them out and let it all out indicators. In other words: why not introduce the "purpose of borrowing, limited to those facilities deemed essential to economic recovery? Remember, every time, that the deficit in GDP may reduce working on the deficit itself, but also on increasing the GDP. While we witness to our aggregate decline of Europe, East Asia growing at overwhelming. Today the Asian middle class already has about 5 million to 600 million humans who will arrive in 2014 to almost one billion. The whole world is anxiously awaiting the new Five-Year Plan of China (about planned economy ...). Perhaps we need to look at this not as a threat but as an opportunity. I'm not a historian, but if I remember correctly, the moments of greatest development in the Mediterranean coincided with those of more intense development of the 'Far East. Remember 'The Million' Marco Polo? Is it not true that Columbus was looking for a faster route to the Indies? Too bad that America has discovered thus shifting the axis of the economy towards Northern Europe. Certainly we can not reopen the route followed by Marco Polo (from Kurdistan, in perpetual war), but if moved our production excellence in the South of Italy, near the southern ports, perhaps we could reach the rich markets of the middle and upper class China via Suez and a huge competitive advantage in terms of transport. We know that the new rich need status symbol to flaunt, and often more than buying a product purchase price. The higher the purchase price and can boast more done. The 'Made in Italy' can undoubtedly be a major statul symbol of the new classes emerging in China and Asia. Of course we should take 'military means' the streets 'in' in Beijing or Shanghai with permanent showrooms and even have some 'Academy' that teach Chinese language to our young people.
Europe limps, Italy is in asphyxia and the South? While no longer think that the North European and Italian can continue to provide resources that are too often burned nell'assistenzialismo most unproductive, the other must leave the myopic vision of an economy that is disconnected from the north of the south. E ', however, essential that organized crime will stop being a rock / alibi, that in the vast southern areas where there is no crime we come out from the torpor that you understand that the infrastructure in the south are primarily useful for north. The south, however, should stop crying on and roll up their sleeves, primarily aim at the government become more efficient and transparent.
I realize that it launched too many issues and too many provocations, but we need to rethink and short of our collective future. As Jim Morrison once said: "When you wake up and you will not see the sun or the sun or you will be dead."

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