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martedì 6 settembre 2011

Italian government: to correct the anti-avoidance rules

There is work on the content of the maneuver to correct, improve, and what principles to prevent the PDL of 'lost soul'. Starting from the review of anti-avoidance measures, the real issue which threatened to play for the PDL (Berlusconi's party) and not so much not only the votes, but also the identity. There's all this - and not just - silent and behind the relentless work that in these days of a tight stages in the Senate was closed with the go-ahead of the Budget Committee and now arrives in Parliament but if that is the field where, to review the changes to the decree, it is calibrated comparison and internal mediation, much more to do and PDL should mark this on the agenda for a simple reason: to consolidate the objectives of today.

On the tax innovations are relevant to the original version that appeared more like a sharp-eyed through which the state put hands and feet in every person's life. A pervasive system and punitive difficult to reconcile with the spirit of '94 and the DNA of a center-liberal and reformist. The paradox is that tax returns online by municipalities, the obligation to indicate the bank name, bank account and financial services provider, the retroactive effect of the measures to name only the most egregious cases, have unleashed to inflate to Visco the chest and say in an interview that basically, the center has done nothing but copy his tax program at the time of the Prodi government. Insult to injury.

The work done at the silent Senate has avoided the damage that is the trick, bringing back on track content (maneuver) and principles ('soul' of the PDL). It is certainly no coincidence that the decree has gone on-line publication of the income of citizens (there is only the option for municipalities but only for categories and aggregates, and not on the basis of name), or if there is no retroactivity or , even if no longer required to decline the bank's name, bank account and financial services. The indication of the current account remains as an option for a reshaping of the citizen of any sanctions, having held that the tax evasion. And therein lies the knot: in practice, the logic is reversed, no more intrusive and punitive, that incentive becomes a means to retrieve a correct relationship with the Taxman.

Enough to Gaetano Quagliariello, vice president of PDL senators, to claim the results "unprecedented" by the government achieved in these three years (one billion and spends money given to the State) and repeat the route that should never be abandoned: on the one hand "in the fight against tax evasion should be all the rigor needed to attack a situation for a long time objectively pathological" other "looking for as possible to avoid unnecessary rigidity and excessive" because the ability to "distinguish between the rigor and control the lives of others is the specificity that distinguishes our culture from the culture of our adversaries. "

As if to say: it is possible to fight tax evasion without allowing Vincenzo Visco give interviews to say that we are copying him.

Three measures and corrected with which, in fact, is done in the heart of the anti-avoidance rules without altering the effectiveness and rigor, but only right at the same time without slipping in the risk (up to a few hours ago, concrete) results of a punitive and ideological, police-state tax. Three measures by which the package of rules is a significant and tangible difference in what at the time of birth by Visco. What time can no longer do interviews like the one that has released in recent days. Blunt weapons for the left, then, while the PDL has defended and safeguarded the principle of rigor in the fight to the Dodgers harmonizing with his liberal vision. 'Soul' save?

For much of this is so, but not quite. There is another rule which, in our opinion, should be reviewed over the coming months: for those who escapes jail for more than three million. Mind you, this does not mean defending scoundrels or find gabola because in the end can continue to do so more or less undisturbed. Obviously it is not and who supports him, is obviously in bad faith. Rather the principle is another: avoid generating a climate of social hatred, and instead creates the conditions so that the Dodgers pay what they have stripped the state and citizens and not do it more. Of course, we must reverse the paradigm, but you can do.

The rule says that those who do not pay taxes for more than three million goes straight to jail and rots the effect of the suspended sentence. Fine, but the three million should not be related to income? And again, the real point is to verify whether there was indeed intentional, that will to cheat the tax authorities and the community.

Why not be the first time, there are cases where the cumbersome bureaucratic compliance, read, read, in-laws and regulations are an obstacle, especially for businesses, rather than a highway to go without humps and bumps. Items to be considered and that the center can not be underestimated.

Another theme, not easy to deal with in times of anti-caste and hunting all'untore. Yet it deserves reflection. The issue is the sag of 15 percent of the salary of parliamentarians held a profession. It is not clear why a judge who stops making the MP finds his job and how well he is a university professor, and so it is for a freelancer who according to the rule in operation must stop doing to make the profession parliamentarian.

All this is likely to fuel a kind of hatred for the free initiative that - instead - is an integral part of the genetic heritage of the PDL. Not only that, but in accordance with the provisions also risks fragmenting the representation and in the end, maybe there will be a parliament made up of officials. This too is an aspect that the PDL should care.

Finally, the other question in the post-it notes to mark the PDL is all about the debate - often demagogic - which these days has been unleashed around the suppression of the recognized parties. Even here, there would be things to correct because you do not understand why abolish the patron saint celebrations go well, but not the same for April 25 or May 1. The risk is to abandon a tradition in which believers and non believers will recognize and replace it with another. And 'no doubt that the left has an interest (political) to dismantle the signs of our culture and our identity. But it also faces the center is at least paradoxical.

The Senate Budget Committee passed the budget law, after a frantic week where he discussed, added and deleted amendments, rules and properly edited texts. Everything now goes into the hands of the House, who will discuss the text from today, with the aim of firing by the weekend, in order to pass the House quickly. In the meantime, however, financial markets seem to have already expressed their negative opinion towards the maneuver. The Milan stock exchange has sold more than 5 percentage points, while the BTP-Bund spread has jumped to 370 basis points (+ 42.7 compared to the opening), and cds, derivative contracts that protect against risk of insolvency of the state, reached a new high of 422.5. Finally, the governor of the Bank of Italy said that it is inappropriate to expect a further intervention by the ECB in support of the Italian titles, again calling on the political class to assume its responsibility for all'intrapresa the necessary structural reforms, in compliance with applicable budget.

Yet another corrective action on the budget because he did discuss the rules with a strong social impact, such as that relating to the impossibility of redemption of years of graduation and the military, those concerning the increased penalties for tax evaders and that the cancellation holiday. The main concern was felt, however, is that relating randomness of forecasts, especially in relation to the quantification of the revenue from the rules on fighting tax evasion. Since accurate predictions are almost impossible to formulate this criticism, even the goal of achieving budget balance appears to be no doubt, raising the risk of having to take additional corrective measures soon.

One could argue at length about the pros and cons of this maneuver. Certainly, the quarrel was built on the security rules has not helped to improve the image of the executive in the eyes of voters, more so if you think that the pension problem must be addressed and resolved once and for all, in order to adapt the 'retirement age to life expectancy and do not continue to penalize the younger generations, who will have to bear in any case, the entire burden of reform. Well then, that the reform be included in a decree and designed in parallel with the tax reform, scheduled for this fall. To evaluate positively the further cost-cutting policy and constitutional bodies, pending the constitutional reform that would completely redesign the size of Parliament, as well as to determine the fate of the provinces.

There remain, however, two major issues unresolved. The first relates to the retroactive effects of the maneuvers of GDP. How can you think of creating an expansionary effect on the production if you continue to pursue restrictive fiscal policies, consisting of continuous tax increases and spending cuts? The liberal economic theory teaches that to liberate the economic potential of a country must have a low level of taxation. The balance of public finances requires, however, that in order to arrive at a balanced budget starting next year, there is a need for new revenue, as well as lower expenses. These two objectives must be clear, are in open conflict with each other. With a level of fiscal pressure as that of Italy is difficult to hope to increase the labor supply or increase foreign investment. Not to mention that our country is likely to suffer short-Laffer effect, according to which, beyond a certain level of fiscal pressure, continuing to raise taxes the revenue decreases, rather than increase, because of the distortions generated by taxation.

The second issue is the link between public finance and financial markets. With the advent of globalization, financial maneuvers are designed by governments according to the opinion of the markets. In case of failure, it must immediately run for cover with another corrective action in the hope that this time the promotion takes place. In Italy's case, however, the rejection has become a constant. With the result that, for the first time in the history of Italian public finances, we have to promote three corrective action within a few months, with the risk of a fourth, if in the coming days, the spreads continue to rise. And so on. The alternative would be that, instead, to begin to seriously intervene in the drastic solutions market regulation. Speculation, understood as an attitude which was made by qualified investors, with the sole purpose of profit arising from the easy bet that a State or a company, can go wrong, must be pursued with determination, even by standards of a criminal nature. One thing is to invest with the goal to gain, another is to be hoped that an economy goes bad in order to obtain personal gain. The short strategies, you know, encourage exactly this kind of behavior. Ensure that the measures introduced in the budget this year to take effect, it takes time. It is inconceivable that the downsizing and restructuring of the state tax and welfare system to take effect within a short time. Why a care of the infirm its effects is needed over a period of physiological time. A long-term program can not be implemented, if every day the state is constantly put under pressure by unscrupulous investors who hope in his failure. To solve this problem is the policy that should make its weight felt, forcing its leadership that derives legitimacy from the democratic people, so as not having to bend to the logic of money and financial power. If a conflict between finance and politics has created, is in the public interest that the latter shall prevail.

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